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Taking the mid-points of these spreads, this equated to a Biden triumph by votes to in the electoral college — a majority of Similar estimates were contained or implicit in the odds offered by other bookmakers, betting exchanges and prediction markets. Based on 40, simulations, the midpoint estimate of the model provided by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight put Biden ahead by electoral college votes to for Trump, a margin of The New Statesman model made it votes to in favour of Biden.
Taking the unweighted mean of all three forecasting models, Biden was projected to win votes in the electoral college to for Trump. This year it was projecting Biden to win the electoral college by votes to The PollyVote project , widely published in academic journals, goes a step further, combining information contained in betting markets with forecasting models, experts and beyond.
This year it forecast a Biden victory by electoral votes to Ten days on from the close of voting and it seems on current trends that Biden will end up with votes in the electoral college to for Trump. This assumes that Georgia, which has yet to be called by the networks, will go as most independent observers expect: for Biden. If this does happen, the betting spreads will be almost spot on. In fact, both these numbers are within the spreads offered on election day.
If Georgia ends up after a recount in the Trump column the betting markets will still have performed well — certainly compared to the forecasting models. Read more: Biden or Trump? Betting markets are more cautious than polls in predicting the US election. What this tells us is that the betting and prediction markets, which respond to the weight of money traded on each candidate, and are informed by considerable professional insight, have this year recovered a reputation dating back to at least , and in the case of the Papal betting markets as far back as So what are they telling us now?
How can this be so, given that the presidential inauguration date for the next term of office is January 20, ? At that point, the loser of the election ceases to be in office. Could it be that Biden is inaugurated but Trump barricades himself inside the Oval Office for five weeks?
More realistically, the traders are factoring in the small possibility of Trump clinging on for a second term. Weston Blasi is a reporter. You can follow him on Twitter WestonBlasi. Economic Calendar. Retirement Planner. Sign Up Log In. Home Industries. Betfair Exchange has still not paid out bets from the presidential election Last Updated: Nov. ET First Published: Nov. ET By Weston Blasi. FLTR Weston Blasi.
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