nfl live betting strategy

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By Matthew Makowski. Originally posted January 7, Updated on January 11 at pm. Investing rock star Warren Buffett has called Bitcoin rat poison, a mirage and worthless.

Nfl live betting strategy football betting tip sheets

Nfl live betting strategy

Pretty straightforward stuff. Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i. In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt. Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents.

Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging. The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt. Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research.

Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL? Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL. If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too.

And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five. Think the Dallas Cowboys. This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity. You can bet it and come back on the other side, or wait for a play in-game. Suppose both teams score on their first drive.

Well, obviously that total is going to increase. Both these teams march down the field so now the in-game total might end up being This is going to soar way over. So some of those guys too might even have a position on the game already and that gives them chance to work a middle. SH: One thing you touched is that basically all the lines have tightened.

Have you noticed with pricing on in-game wagering, is there more differentiation to potentially exploit, due to the speed of things? And then another might have 8 with it juiced to the under. I think the sharp books on pregame or halftime-type wagering are also going to be the sharp books on in-game wagering. More often than not. WR : If I like an underdog, getting 7 for example, and then all of a sudden they go down 7 points. Maybe the other team started with the ball, or maybe the dog turned it over or there was defensive touchdown on the other side.

Well I may not have taken the 7 pregame, but now I can take maybe 9. Those are ones I like to bet. How did they score the touchdown? Did they march right down the field or did they get a or 50 yard pass interference penalty to help them move out. You have to put all that stuff into context. Fifteen yards pass over the middle. Maybe stick to limited amount of games. Focus on sides or totals and looking at what your opinion was; always write down what your opinions are on games.

Write down the opener on a sheet in notebook or if you want to type in a Excel spreadsheet, what was the opening line and what was the closer on Sunday? They want to limit liability as much as they can. So always keep that in mind. SH: We talked about changes in the spread and totals in-game, based on circumstances early, a little bit on quarters.

Do you go deeper on in-game opportunities and look at discrete drives or plays? WR: If you really have an edge then you should bet it. Do I need to maybe look at something different?

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For example, the most recent Super Bowl between the Patriots and Rams turned into an offensive quagmire where neither team appeared poised to rack up many points. Those viewers that read into game flow and placed a bet on the Under even as it shifted lower were rewarded by a comfortable payout in a game that ended There are several free sites that will disclose information on where the public is betting in terms of the moneyline, point spread, and point total.

These trends can lead to a shift in the lines as sportsbooks try to adjust when too much money is coming in on one side or the other. These trends can also indicate which side of the line is a better bet based on the sheer number of bets coming in.

However, the percentage of bets coming in on one side or the other is often not as telling as the percentage of money coming in on one side of the line. Some sites might have a team with a line of -4 on a particular game, but another site could have the same team at There is generally an industry standard, but even a sleight differentiation can lead to huge changes in dividends in the long run.

You can also shop lines by timing when you place your bets. Oddsmakers will set an Opening Line early in the week, but that could change based on how the public bets the game. Sometimes it makes sense to hammer an Opening Line right away so that you get the best odds possible. Conversely, the underdog might become appealing late in the week if the spread rises to 13 or even 14 points.

Waiting for the right line can create the perfect opportunity to bet against the public at even better odds. Consistent success in NFL betting is hard to come by, since sportsbooks are often eerily accurate in how they set Spreads and Point Totals.

In order to turn a profit, bettors have to find their own formula for determining value and potential winners. Certain teams tend to play better when going up against heavy favorites, and many teams tend to play better or worse in prime time games. There are certain analytics available for free on many sites that can help you predict how a game will unfold. Here are some of the key analytics that we use to predict game flow:. Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge.

Sports gambling can be a destructive force and should not be taken lightly or considered as a main source of income for anyone but the most experienced handicappers. While retail sportsbooks will only accept bets before a game kicks off, online betting sites allow users to bet throughout the contest and adjust to live odds.

The convenience of betting from your phone or laptop is hard to beat. Viewers can watch any game by purchasing the Sunday Ticket through DirectTV, or the scoring highlights and exciting finishes compiled by the Red Zone channel. There are also options to stream NFL games through various online platforms. We break down the chances […].

Buffalo Bills. Miami Dolphins. New England Patriots. New York Jets. Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh Steelers. Houston Texans. Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee Titans. Denver Broncos. Kansas City Chiefs. Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas Raiders. Dallas Cowboys. New York Giants. Philadelphia Eagles.

Washington Football Team. It does, however, have two characteristics in common with the point spread and moneyline. It is a single wager and it is based on the overall outcome of the game. Each game has a point total listed and you put money down on whether the total number of points will be over or under that amount. In our example, if you bet the under and the total points scored equal 35 or less, you would win your bet.

Likewise, if you wager on the over and more than 35 points are scored, your wager would be a winner. These bets usually pay the same as point spread wagers 1. The odds and choices are dictated by a great deal of analysis. There are many other different types of bets that are available through sportsbooks.

In sports betting strategy, the term exotics refers to any wager that is not a single-game wager or is not based on the outcome of a game. These types of bets are much harder to hit than the three basic sports bets discussed in this article. In other words, if I flip a coin times, it will come up heads 50 times and tails 50 times.

But this is not necessarily true. The fact is that each flip of the coin is an action unto itself and the outcome of one toss is independent of all others. There is no reason that the number of heads and number of tails should even out.

We can apply this same concept to sports betting. Each game you bet is like each toss of the coin. Those who wager on sports often believe that a series of loses will be followed by a series of wins. A series of losses may be followed by one or two or a series of wins or even more loses.

The results of your wagers have nothing to do with the law of averages or with wins and loses equaling out. If it did, then no one would ever make or lose money at sports betting. Some people win more than they lose and others lose more than they win and some just break even. Needless to say, you should be ahead prior to expanding your wagering. Once you build you profit to the previous level, you may start multi-unit wagering again.

Doing so allows you to easily figure out odds and potential profits and losses. When you bet on sports live, depending on the sport, you may be offered six or more wagering opportunities on a single play! And some of those bets will pay big. The NFL turnover prop is a good example of a bet that offers a very large payout. There are games played in the regular season.

Each of those games has an average of plays. During the NFL season there were a total of turnovers. That means an average of around 2.