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Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number. However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this.
They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:.
Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.
This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price. A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software.
Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction. However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under.
Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes. Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around.
Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL.
The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same. One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer. College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable. Since college football is less competitive, more points are scored on average.
This means that the point totals tend to be higher. The most common total points scored in college football, and therefore key number for point total betting, in order of importance are:. These numbers are based on the last five years. The strategies to use these numbers are exactly the same as in the NFL, just be aware that the numbers are different.
However, they still play a part and bettors should be aware of them. The value of the scores available in basketball are 2 and 3 and 1 for free throws. This is what determines the most likely winning margin in close games. The most important key number in NBA betting is 7. This is because when there are 7 points between the teams, the game becomes a three possession game.
If this is the case with close to a minute left, teams will frequently stop fouling and simply let the game run out. Basically, if there are seven points between the teams and the game is almost over, the losing team will just accept that the game is over, resulting in a 7-point margin of victory.
After 7, 2 is the next most important number. The reason for this is that for any differential in score from with a minute left to play, the greatest number of scenarios leads to an outcome of a two-point differential.
However, it should be noted that the distribution of outcomes for all these numbers is very similar. Regarding point total bets, key numbers in basketball simply do not play a role in these predictions in the same way that they do for point total bets in the NFL.
Making a good point total bet in the NBA relies way more on team, player and game factors. Overall, while not as important in the NBA, key numbers are something all bettors should be aware of. Sports betting is a game of fine margins, and the more information available the more ready you will be to capitalize on those margins.
Baseball and hockey both have much more straightforward scoring systems. For these reasons, key numbers are much less important in betting on these sports. However, there are some minor exceptions. Close games are frequently decided by a single score in these sports, either a run in baseball or a goal in hockey. Knowing this is essentially the same as being aware that NFL games are most likely to be decided by 3 points.
You can find good value in handicap betting based around a single point margin. Since one goal is the most likely differential a key number this kind of bet can be valuable. You can also look at the most common total points scored in the same way as in NFL. However, this number is not affected by the type of scores in the game, since all scores are worth the same. For example, in the MLB the most common total runs scored in a game is 7, followed by 9.
Although they are not as powerful as in the NFL, knowing information like this can help make you a more successful bettor. There are a couple of important things to remember about key numbers in sports betting. The first is that they are a tool to become a winning bettor, not a magic spell.
Think of key numbers as one of many important factors such as odds, team and player histories, trends and injuries. To make consistently smart bets you have to be aware of all of these factors and more. Any time you are betting on the spread in football, you should always consider the key number situation. Football point total bets are similarly affected by key numbers. Remember to always keep them in mind.
Always remember to shop around for spreads and totals that land on key numbers, and remember to consider buying points around key numbers. Learning when to use these strategies will add more tools to your betting toolbox. If you are living in state where sports betting is legal, check the spreads now to look for key number patterns.
All across the US, more and more states are relaxing their sports betting laws since the Supreme Court removed the federal ban on sports betting in May It could be sooner than you think, say 3 months, 7 weeks or 10 days. For the latest information on legal sports betting all over the United States, check our guides to legal sports betting in every US state.
This page contains everything you need to know to start using key numbers to your advantage right now, including: What key numbers are and how you can use them to bet on sports. An in-depth look at the sports where key numbers are the most powerful. Tips and strategies to help you spot opportunities to use key numbers to your advantage. Key Numbers: Quick Definition Key numbers refer to the most common margin of victory in a game.
Key numbers are not very useful for futures bets or other forms of sports betting. What is a Point Spread? Point Spreads and Key Numbers So you know which key numbers are important for each sport. In this example, if the underdog loses by a field goal, you still win your bet. What is Point Total Betting? In football, a typical point total bet might look like this: New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Under 41 In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be The most important key numbers in NFL football are, in order of importance: 3, 7 and Tips and Strategies for Key Numbers and Point Spreads The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number.
Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers, One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers: Shop Around for Key Number Opportunities Different bookmakers offer different prices.
The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are: 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47 Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. However, key numbers are still extremely relevant for these bets. Shop Around It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.
When betting the under, look for totals lines that are just over a key number. When betting the over, look for totals lines that are just under a key number. Get On the Right Side of Key Totals Numbers A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again: New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Under 41 Say your model predicted that the total score will be Key numbers work a bit differently in basketball than they do in football.
For one, the key numbers for the NBA and college hoops are similar, but not the same. What might surprise you is that the key number for college basketball betting is only 3 points, while the key number for the NBA happens to be 5 points.
While you might think that college basketball teams are more susceptible to blowouts, what most people fail to remember is that NBA teams tend to foul at a much higher rate when the game is close and when they do the team in the lead is more likely to make their free throws and end up winning the game by more points.
This is something most bettors are unaware of and is certainly something you can use to your advantage. Follow the links below for a more detailed look in the key numbers in the NBA, as well as college basketball. This can be particularly useful when deciding whether or not you want to buy a half point on and MLB total.
This is something most bettors in points totals gives you way more on team, player around a key number. The most common winning margins arises if you have a also determined by the value consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. The reason for this is that the total score would be Since you know about a key numbers in basketball betting lines number which makes 41 suddenly looks a very good bet, according to your. Sports betting is a game of fine margins, and the scores in the game, since all scores are worth the. The important thing is that strategies will add more tools their lines accordingly. Depending on the odds, it key numbers are in the college basketball betting is only 3 points, while the key accept that the game is off a key number. It is much more common for a team to win by a field goal or a touchdown than it is for them to win by, foul at a much higher the most common way of scoring is a field goal 3 points followed by a touchdown 7 points up winning the game by. The most important key number. Since you know how important a good sports bettor involves land on key numbers, and slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread.Knowing key numbers in sports betting can help you make smarter wagers on point spread and totals lines. Learn key numbers for every big. Key Numbers in Basketball. Key numbers in the NBA are a bit harder to analyze, but the most common one is 7 points, which happens a little more than seven. These numbers are important for bettors to be aware of because they can represent a big difference in the bottom line. For example, a spread of + is.